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Emerging Markets

2012 Should be better

A wasted year for LatAm Stock Markets

Sequential economic growth is currently weak by historical standards in most emerging market countries. There can be little doubt that investor concerns about the crisis in the euro zone coupled with weak growth in Europe and the U.S. have been key drivers of the fall in emerging markets’ growth momentum. LatAm has underperformed global emerging equity markets so far in 2011, but the long term picture is still largely positive. Hence the MSCI LatAm is down 16% so far this year to date in U.S. ...

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Investors Beware

Of Brazilian FIDCs (ABS) Backed by Consumer Credit

Investors in Brazilian ABS backed by consumer loans should be wary of increasing levels of non-performing loans (NPLs) in Fundos de Investimento em Direitos Creditórios (FIDCs). LatAm Structured Finance has warned about this before (www.latamsfc.com). Evidence that the situation is worsening includes the following recent developments in Brazil: The Central Bank of Brazil surprised markets by lowering the SELIC 50 basis points ...

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The Tug of War

The challenge to control your wealth and destiny - Part 1

When John D. Rockefeller opened his family office, Rockefeller Family and Associates, in 1882, I am sure he did not lack reasons to do so. Without doubt he recognized that very few people in the world, certainly no commoner, had ever amassed such an extraordinary fortune. Furthermore, he was well aware that no banking institution in the United States or elsewhere, for that matter, had the means or the know-how to serve America’s first billionaire ...

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Political Update

Brought to you by LatinNews

Her impressive re-election victory on October 23 has given President Cristina Fernández plenty of political capital and room to maneuver – and maneuvering she is. Just four days after her victory, Fernández surprised by introducing strict controls on the foreign exchange market in an attempt to keep the U.S. dollar/peso exchange rate stable as well as curbing the increasingly worrying levels of capital flight. These measures were followed shortly afterwards by the announcement that “clearly profitable” sectors of the economy ...

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Understanding the High Net-Worth Family in Latin America

ALI Speaks with Paul Karger of Twin Focus Capital Partners

LatAm has the highest density of high and ultra-high net worth individuals per capita of any region in the world, and as their numbers and fortunes have swollen in recent years, many have turned to family offices to manage their wealth.  The independence and versatility of the family office model attracts them, especially in the face of recent volatility in the global markets.  While some family offices outside the region have won LatAm clients, the numbers and sophistication of local family offices has been growing rapidly, as well ...

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12%

Understanding Brazilian Interest Rates

Last August, Brazil’s central bank surprised the world by cutting its benchmark Selic interest rate 50 basis points, from 12.5% to 12%.  The cut reversed a steady tightening trend over the previous year-and-a-half, during which time the bank raised the Selic 175 basis points in an effort to prevent overheating and meet its professed inflation target of 4.5% (plus or minus 2 percentage points).  Reuters reported after the cut that every economist it polled had expected the rate to hold steady at 12.5%, and 62 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg said they were surprised.  Daniel Osorio, CEO of Andean Capital Management, a Colombian hedge fund, summed up ...

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Alternative Latin Investor Profile

LatAm Expert: John Price

I first moved to Mexico in 1992 for personal reasons and was quickly intrigued by the opportunities and challenges of living and operating in that country.  My initial attempts to represent different manufacturers as their agent in Mexico failed miserably because I misread the buying culture.  After a year of misfiring sales efforts, I found my niche studying the Mexican market for foreign suppliers who wanted to enter the soon-to-be NAFTA partner country ...

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Political Moves: Breaking LatAm News

Brought to you by Latinnews.com

On September 14 Brazil’s octogenarian tourism minister, Pedro Novais, stepped down amid corruption allegations. President Dilma Rousseff has accepted the resignations of five ministers in eight months, only one of which was not linked to corruption. Having initially dithered, Rousseff, under pressure from the press and the public alike, is now taking no prisoners in her quest to rout entrenched official graft, which she argues is public money meant for schools and hospitals. According to official estimates, total annual corruption in Brazil is worth some US$19 billion, which is the equivalent of Bolivia’s GDP. Rousseff’s ‘zero tolerance’ policy is popular on the streets ...

 

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Be Careful What You Wish For

Brazilian Infrastructure

 Foreign firms bidding on infrastructure projects or buying up local companies in Brazil are understandably keen to get in on the country's economic boom. But two projects gone awry provide a cautionary tale of the considerable risks that accompany potential rewards in Brazil. In November 2009, The Economist noted that “Brazil has been democratic before, it has had economic growth before, and it has had low inflation before. But it has never before sustained all three at the same time. If current trends hold (which is a big if), Brazil, with a population of 192 million and growing fast … 

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Latin American Venture Capital

Lessons from China

 The Venture Capital (VC) story in Latin America is anything but a shared experience. Where some countries like Chile have actively stimulated the VC industry since the 1990s, other countries like Peru have only now begun to promote their VC industry. Where some like Brazil have actively established the necessary legal frameworks for early-stage investments, investments in Mexico are made more in spite of – and less because of – local regulations.  It should not be surprising, then, that Latin America’s fragmentation and mishmash of regulations makes the object of investment in the region anything but definite ...

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Growing M&A activity between Asia and Latin America?

Rising bilateral trade between Asia and Latin America

 Will rising bilateral trade between Asia - especially China, and Latin America - lead to more merger and acquisition activity between the two regions? Asian exports to Latin America have risen 65% in 2010 from the prior year. Two-way trade amounted to US$ 172bn in 2010, a jump of 50% from 2009, and in favor of Latam. Trade has risen at a 25% annual compounded aggregate growth rate (CAGR) since 2000. Brazil and Chile run trade surplus with Asia while most other Latam countries have a deficit with the Asian continent. Mexico has a US$13 bn trade deficit with Asia … 

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Political Moves: Breaking LatAm News

Brazil, Chile, Colombia & Peru

 President Dilma Rousseff took a major decision in mid-June to axe her scandal-hit number two, the minister of the presidency, Antonio Palocci, a veteran baron of the ruling left-wing Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT). In a sign of her single mindedness, she went against the advice of senior party members including her predecessor and mentor Lula da Silva (2002-2010) and replaced Palocci with a first time PT senator, Gleisi Hoffmann, and later also replaced the struggling PT minister for institutional relations, Luiz Sérgio, with another woman, Ideli Salvatti, who she switched across from the fisheries ministry ...

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Political Moves: Breaking LatAm News

Brought to you by Latinnews.com

Divisions in Uruguay’s left-wing ruling coalition, Frente Amplio (FA), over the contentious repeal of the ‘Ley de Caducidad’, which prohibits the investigation and prosecution of crimes committed by the military during the dictatorship (1973-1985), provide an unexpected opportunity for the weak opposition. The institutionally strong FA has been successful in pushing the repeal initiative through congress only by forcing its members to vote in favour or face expulsion from the coalition. As a result, at least one prominent FA congressman has resigned, and another’s expulsion is pending. The approval of the proposed reforms would also spark a major rift with …  

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Can Latin American Equity Markets Resume Growth in 2011?

Analyzing the performing of LatAm Equity Markets

 Latin American (LATAM) equity markets are underperforming other emerging markets so far in 2011. The MSCI Latin America Index is down 4% while global emerging markets are up 1% during the same period. Though weak so far year to date, Latin American equity markets returns over ten years still outperform emerging Asia (see Exhibit 1). Within the Latam stock market, returns vary greatly by country with Colombia being the only market showing positive returns in US$. Peru and Argentina are down 20% and 18% respectively following a stellar performance in 2010. Over a longer time period … 

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Political Moves: LatinNews

LatinNews Political Analysis

 Bolivia’s leftwing President Evo Morales has seen his popularity drop to an unprecedented 30%, the lowest since first taking office in 2006. This slump stems from his move - via presidential decree - to scrap fuel subsidies in late December 2010, which sent petrol and diesel costs soaring to 73% and 83%, in a bid to stem contraband and improve competition in the local energy sector. The so-called gasolinazo added to the public concern over soaring food prices, which rose an estimated 9%-11% last year, above the rate of inflation (7.2% in 2010). Following unrest across the country, including … 


 

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Profile: Eduardo Solorzano

ALI Speaks with President and CEO of Walmart Latin America Eduardo Solórzano

Well I’ve been in the retail industry for more than 25 years. I started with Cifra, the partner we used to have in Mexico when we started our joint venture in 1991.  I had a diversity of responsibilities such as managing, logistics and buying and in 1998 really started my executive career.  I first worked in Sam’s Club and then the Super Center working as the food director and later in charge of taking deliveries for the Walmart Super Centers in Mexico.  After that I was in charge of the orders for retail format in Mexico …   

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Political Moves: Breaking LatAm News

LatinNews Political Analysis

The three possible presidential candidates for the opposition Unión Cívica Radical (UCR) in the 23rdof October presidential election - Ernesto Sánz, Julio Cobos and Ricardo Alfonsín - are attacking each other over whether to hold an early primary in April/May or wait until the 14thof August mandatory and simultaneous open primaries to determine who will represent the UCR at the polls. The bickering is very detrimental to the UCR’s image, dividing its electorate and giving an advantage to the ruling Frente para la Victoria of President Cristina Fernández (likely to seek re-election) … 

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Emerging Markets Vulnerable to Rising Inflation

Flows into Latin American stock markets disappoint in 2010

 Inflows into Latin American stocks decreased substantially in 2010 compared to 2009.  In fact the region attracted less money than all others, even Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA). Asia ex Japan remained the favorite region globally while country wise Japan took first place.  In the US, flows stabilized after massive withdrawals in 2009.  The Greek and Irish financial crisis took a toll on flows in developed Europe, negative over US$10 billion for the year. How can we explain the ‘poor’ interest by investors for Latin American equities in 2010? … 

 

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Beyond Certainty

Economic instability in Argentina

 Ever since the collapse of the economy in December of 2001, life has been dull for both local and international Private Equity and Real Estate firms, as well as for Investment Banks doing business in Argentina. Long gone are the days of the roaring 1990s, when large amounts of capital from Europe, Japan and the United States found their way into Argentina in a wake of privatizations and open market policies, dubbed by John Williamson, the “Washington Consensus”, that sprung a great deal of M&A and Private Equity activity. Today, South America’s second largest economy, and the bearer of both … 

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Life Settlement Investment in Latin America

Mutual funds and alternative asset funds

 Mutual funds and alternative asset funds around the world have the shared experience of volatility and downward fluctuations during the past few years.  Investors have lost confidence in fund performance and their redemptions are putting greater pressure on asset managers to deliver a return.  At this moment there is a substantial flight of investment from mutual funds and the equities markets.  Many investors today are looking for non-correlated investments that, with greater certainty and less sensitivity to market turmoil, still offer potential for growth. Despite today’s turbulent market conditions, a high-yield investment opportunity exists within life settlements, a non-correlated alternative … 

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Post Nestor Kircher : Best and Worse Case Scenario

Life and Politics - after the death the Argentine Leader

Best Case Scenario:  The business environment remains stable, as President Fernández de Kirchner does not seek reelection and works towards “keeping the house in order” until October 2011.  Post 2011 presidential elections, the power vacuum is filled by a more pro-business administration, which performs a drastic change in the role of the State in the economy and seeks to integrate the country’s economy with the international markets. The politicians will shelve their differences and focus on the best interests of the country, which include embracing free market capitalism, strengthening institutions, and attracting foreign investment ...

  

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ALI Speaks with Bertrand Delgado: Senior Analyst for Emerging Markets and Latin America at Roubini G

Emerging Market forecast from Bertrand Delgado from the Roubini Group

 We know now that regions within the emerging markets differ from one another. Asia and Latin America are stronger com- pared to emerging Europe for example. The reason why this dynamic evolved is because most of these countries performed structural reforms. They built up solid buffers against external vulnerability, they cleaned up their balance sheets and they improved their financial system regulation and they were not too involved in all of the toxic asset meltdown mostly due to strict regulation in their financial systems. Most of these companies are involved in sound macroeconomic policies … 

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Latin America Versus Asia

Comparing the top Latin American and Asian Banks

 We compare the performance and valuations of the ten largest publicly listed banks in Latin America and Asia in 2010. Comparing banks from different countries and continents is not an easy exercise as there is a myriad of factors that affect their performance, ranging from tax rates to regulation to the size of the domestic market, monetary policies and so forth. Overall LatAm banks have performed better so far in 2010 with nine of the ten largest returning positive price performances with Credicorp (+61%) and Banco De Chile (+60%) leading the group … 

  

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Alternative Latin Investor Speaks with The Economist's Robert Ward

Emerging market forecast

Eastern Europe had the biggest crash of any emerging market, putting them to one side, clearly Asia, the Middle East and Latin America are growing very well this year.  Brazil has roughly about 7% perhaps a bit more, which is quite good.  A few things have been driving this good performance, one of which is the stimulus, particularly in China.  You can't really underestimate the importance of the Chinese stimulus to driving growth pretty much across the world.  Obviously Brazil has benefited hugely from that, as a well as Argentina.  That said, emerging markets are not as indebted … 


 

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Investment Flows and Stock Market Return

Portfolio flows into equity markets have been strong so far globally in 2010

Portfolio flows into equity markets have been strong so far globally in 2010. For example, in Japan, close to US$ 22 Billion has been invested in the stock market, all from foreign investors as domestic investors have been neutral. Asia ex Japan stock markets have attracted just over US $ 30 Billion, the most favored region by investors. On the other hand developed markets have seen massive withdrawals, starting with the US with US $ 28 Billion and Europe with US $ 12 Billion.What is happening to investment flows into equity markets in Latin America … 

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Let the World See Your Wares in the Right Light

Due diligence processes for foreign investment

 There is little doubt that collective fund investors these days are exercising greater caution in their due diligence processes before taking the investment plunge.  Behind every due diligence enquiry is the driving necessity for each investor to uncover the true structure and organisation that is lurking behind every fund’s glossy brochure or website. Whilst the overwhelming majority of funds and similar offerings are bona fide propositions created with a view to bringing interested parties together in investment harmony, a tiny minority may have a darker purpose.  Since Mr. Madoff’s fraud was exposed, many investors have upped their … 

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Mexico, Superstar Player of the Emerging Economies

Mexico's emerging economy makes it a major player in the emerging markets race

 Mexico: Latin America’s newest investment beacon and slightly less-publicised regional superstar. With the highest level of FDI in the region and a more stable political environment than ever before, Mexico is an investment destination prime for the picking and one that is giving its key industrial competitor, China, a run for its money. It is Latin America’s second largest market after Brazil and is tipped to become one of the largest world economies by 2050.  So, what about Mexico’s economic model makes it so alluring to international investment? … 

 

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A New Era for Investment in Argentina

Affects of global crisis on Argentine economy

 After the fall of Lehman Brothers and the crash of the stock market in 2008, Latin American countries have managed to live through and survive the world crisis very much unscathed. Although the majority of the Latin American countries have endured the crisis, in the rest of the world, its effects have carried on through 2009 to affect not only the financial markets, but also the real economy.In 2010, the crisis in Europe has spread out around the globe and yet again, Latin American countries are alive and kicking.  In the first quarter of 2010 Brazil grew at a staggering … 

 

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Cuba: return to capitalism?

Thoughts on Cuba beginning to follow a Capitalist model

 The day is coming when not another paddle will touch the water held by a Cuban who risks drowning in a desperate attempt to cross the Florida straits while searching for freedom from the asphyxiating grip of a regime whose only achievement has been the vicious oppression of its people. A system and leader bizarrely respected – and even loved – by many around the world who naturally have never lived as much as one minute inside communist walls. The irony is that even Cuba’s self-claimed leader recognizes the pristine potential of capitalism … 

  

  

 

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A Week in the Life of Canning House

Founded in 1943 to promote understanding and exchange between Britain, Spain, Portugal and LatAm

 Canning House, London, was founded in 1943 to promote understanding and exchange between Britain, Spain, Portugal and Latin America. Honouring the name of – to this day – Britain’s only foreign minister to devote a great amount of his energies towards the affairs of Latin America, Canning House aims to foster and foment links through cultural and business exchange. The business events held at Canning House are often focused on trade investments. Most Canning House members are people who currently have business ties in Latin America or are people interested in expanding to the region … 

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Building A Bridge to the Middle East

The Arabs are long-term and sophisticated investors and are very interested in Latin America

 In 1973, Ibrahim Oweiss, a professor at Georgetown University, created the word "petrodollar" to describe the huge amounts of foreign currency being generated by the oil producing countries (OPEC), which in turn were largely invested in the economies of other nations. Since then, the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have continued these investments through so-called Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF). The largest of them, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, is thought to have nearly $800 billion dollars invested worldwide. Major financial institutions like Citigroup and Barclays as well as carmakers such … 

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Rio 2016: Opportunities and Responsibilities

This developing nation has the ability to muscle in on both global athletic and economic games

 Brazil certainly has a lot to boast about in the New Year, not in the least its winning bid to host the 2016 Summer Olympics in the Cidade Maravilhosaof Rio de Janeiro. The decision by the International Olympic Committee (IOC) on October 2, 2009, speaks loudly to the global community, signalling Brazil’s arrival on the world stage and showing that a developing nation has the ability to muscle in on both global athletic and economic games.The real gold medal, however, is not Brazil’s winning bid or its recent economic prowess … 

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The Future of Brazilian Energy Intigration with Peru

Discussing the future of Brazilian Energy Intigration with Peru

 November 11th, 2009, Brazil experienced one of its worst blackouts in history. Due to the fall of a transmission line that connects the giant Itaipu Power Plant (the largest operational hydroelectric power plant in the world) to the Brazilian electrical system, the major states of the country had no electricity for more than three hours during the early evening—peak hours for energy consumption. This blackout clearly exposed the fragility of the Brazilian interconnected power system, which is ultra-dependent on the energy generated by the Itaipu Binacional plant. In the weeks that followed, other stories made the Brazilian news … 

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Paradise Lost, Paraguay Found

Paraguay has become an attraction for foreign investors

 The hit of the global economic crisis coupled with the harsh and extended drought has transformed the once-vulnerable Paraguay, with its rich agricultural industry and extensive hydro-electricity resources, into an attraction for foreign investors. Canadian entrepreneurs and investors Neal De Florio and Daniel Wang, Principals of Monarca Capital, are smitten with Paraguay’s stable economy, high incentives, low taxes and abundance of water, extensive arable land and clean electricity, oil and gas “The strategic geographic location of Paraguay, nicknamed the ‘Heart of South America’ is at the ‘heart’ of the highest income region of the continent … 

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