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Political Risk

Brazilian

Cyber Security

"A few years ago the question was ‘What’s your China strategy?’ Now the question is ‘What’s your Brazil strategy?’,” says Yann de Vries, Managing Director and Co-Founder of Redpoint e.ventures (RPeV). The early-stage VC specialist raised US$130 million in July 2012 to create Brazil’s first dedicated Silicon Valley fund. “It’s the next frontier of growth, and we get solicited ...

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Human Capital

Why isn't it a Foreign Policy Issue?

There appears to be a growing consensus in US and Latin American circles that our diplomatic relationship has not been very dynamic over the past decade—with hopes that the re-election of President Obama could finally occasion the real hemispheric dialogue that he said was his priority at the beginning of his first term. But this kind of thinking is clearly coming from a US perspective, since many Latin American societies are asking themselves why ...

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Security Risks

In Colombia's Oil and Gas Industry

A senior US official said recently in a closed session of industry professionals and analysts that Colombia’s oil and gas industry was seeing a “golden moment.” While reserves of 2.23 billion boe are tiny in comparison with neighboring Venezuela’s almost 300 billion boe (18% of global totals), growth in production between 2006-2011 has been exceeded globally by Azerbaijan. Production of 3 million bpd is thought feasible in the next 5 years ...

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Brazil's Partnering Economy

On the Search for Strategic Partners

A client recently told me he was through with China, after more than 6 years trying to make money in the environmental and clean-tech sector. Reluctantly, he had become an adherent to short-term capitalism — if you have knowledge and expertise to sell, do it as quickly as you can for as much as you can, because that is all you will be able to do. However, I was struck by what he went on to say: Brazil is his next market ...

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The Failed States Index

How do the South American Results Break Down?

Everyone loves a table. What better way to try and capture in a nice, juicy round number the multitude of influences that make up the fabric of a nation? The Failed States Index remains an extremely useful way to see at a glance the kinds of pressures – social, political, economic and military – acting on countries and how they try and handle them. How do the South American results break down? Most encouraging is the large, inverted triangle of yellow that makes up the Southern Cone (see map). Uruguay, Chile and Argentina ...

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The Truth About Nationalization

The Argentina / YPF Debate

Evo Morales’s May Day present to the Bolivian people this year, the nationalization of electricity firm Transportadora de Electricidad (TDE), caused some discomfort, especially in Madrid, coming shortly after the Argentine government’s YPF expropriation. TDE was 99.94% owned by REE, the Spanish electricity operator, and lack of investment was cited as the reason behind the move. Would the dominos of the old colonial power start to fall in South America? ...

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Playing with Its Heritage

Steps Toward a Critical Juncture in Argentina

This year’sHeritage Foundation/Wall Street Journal Annual report of economic freedom confirms what many in the global investment community already suspected or knew: that it is getting increasingly difficult and risky to invest and do business in Argentina.  The Index gives Argentina an “economic freedom” score of 48, making it the 158th freest in the world, and 27th out of 29 LatAm countries included. Argentinaone of four LatAm/Caribbean countries Venezuela, Ecuador and Cuba are the others) ...

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Political Risk in LatAm

The Inaugural Instalment of a Regular Column

Consistently, C-suite executives cite political risk as the second-biggest risk in LatAm, according to participants in the quarterly FT/Economist Global Business Barometer. Above corruption, above inflation, above skills shortages, second only to market and economic risk. So it seems appropriate for this magazine to begin a column examining the subject ...

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