First Quarter Outlook for Real, Argentine and Mexican Peso
The outlook for the first quarter in Mexico, Argentina and Brazil
Our last article reviewed the roller coaster that was 2009 and many of the core themes that influenced FX market pricing and movements throughout the year. Based on further observations our analysis to date indicates that thematic overtones such as liquidity, behavioral unpredictability of the ‘human element’ and over-reaction to basic fundamentals are likely to keep FX market participants firmly entrenched and involved in what could be another dynamic yet unpredictable year ahead.
January was reasonably quiet although did show the unwinding of one major recent trend as many currencies came under selling pressure, resulting in a generally unexpected bout of USD strength against most currencies, especially towards the end of the month. Interestingly, the Dollar strengthened on risk-aversion in some cases and on generally better-than-expected US data in others, as employment deterioration showed signs of slowing drastically.
The Euro in particular cam....
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